Whither the Asean laggard?

That growth would either stall or contract in a pandemic regime is totally expected. Stalled economies and contracting economies are the universal wages of a pandemic, bludgeoning   both developed and emerging economies, sparing no one, including closed-off Stalinist holdouts. A few countries, however, are hit brutally and hard, wasted to the core. Such is the tragic case of the Philippines in this pandemic regime. Just last year, the national mood was upbeat punctuated by chest-beating about the rosy future of “Asia’s fastest-growing economy.” There was so much talk about the steady climb to a middle-income economy within the near future.

In a sad turn of events, the Philippines will close out 2020 as the Asean region’s worst economic performer with a projected 8 percent to 9 percent drop in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). The optimistic estimates that the GDP drop would not breach the 6-percent level, which has been the average and uninterrupted growth rate over the past several years, has been deemed both unrealistic and overoptimistic. A less-than 4 percent contraction, which was what the economic managers expected in their June projections, was based on an imaginary third quarter jump in economic activities. And a fourth quarter return to near normalcy.